2020 Review, Lessons Learnt, What I’m looking out for in 2021

2020 is the year of COVID-19, a year of uncertainty, and changes happening at a fast pace. It offers several interesting lessons for me.

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Portfolio Performance

My portfolio returned 55.96%. With a bit of luck, I managed to turn it around after that disastrous first half of 2020. At one point I was down 25%. Really tested my nerves to stay vested in times like these.

Lessons Learnt

1 – Flexibility

Despite the overall good final outcome, I made many mistakes in 2020. Over the year, there are many times which I have to slap my own head thinking “How could I have missed that?”

I was way too focused on the tankers and the “recovery theme” plays and was slow to catch on the many different themes in play.

The basic fact is that COVID have dramatically changed the world and with it millions of peoples’ way of life. However, I was thinking of “what if one day Covid disappeared?” I guess I am not flexible enough, or that I refused to adapt and be flexible.

2 – Decision Making

I am a stubborn guy and I hate to take a L. Probably that’s why I missed out on several investing opportunities to switch investments when things don’t go my way. I take way way way too long to admit that I was wrong and to cut loss and move on.

Tankers is one pretty good example. I was fortunate to take some profit off the table during the spike in share price in April 2020 but I’m still holding the bag, albeit much smaller.

3 – Conviction only comes when you really did your homework

Stock picking is important, but having the conviction to hold is another different story. I learnt that having the conviction to hold a stock takes alot of effort. My multi-baggers last year all happened because I am very confident that it’s undervalued and the share price will rise.

However, those that I missed out on, or sold too early, are stocks that I bought based on hearsay or recommendations. ( I gambled on Tesla, some microcaps and bitcoin miners, but I didn’t do much homework and chickened out early)

What I’m looking for in 2021

I’m buying out the whole periodic table.

https://thefelderreport.com/2020/08/05/a-generational-opportunity-in-commodities/

I still like to buy stuff nobody wants. Looking at the chart above, I see just how cheap and out of favor commodities-focused equities have now become. They could be a generational buying opportunity today.

While demand slumped amid the global lockdown, supply of many commodities has also been constrained thanks to the pandemic and other environmental factors.
 
Now, as demand rapidly bounces back, there are signs that a supply crunch is coming to send commodity prices surging.

I’m already loading up on stocks like Uranium Participation Corp (Uranium) and Freeport McMoran (Copper & Gold) just to name a few. I have also wrote about lumber prices going crazy and I’m vested in SGX listed Avarga. I also hold shares of SGX listed Straits Trading, which owns a tin mine (Tin has rose 40% since the March lows).

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And Now, Back to the New Normal

So January 1st becomes my day of the big sigh of relief that 2020 is finally over.

Of course, the truth of the matter is that January 1st is just a date on the calendar. And I don’t expect an overhaul in a day. Hopefully, we will start to see gradual, slow progress that brings about a meaningful recovery.

There are plenty of things to be optimistic about for 2021. So let’s drop any sense of disappointment and look for brand new opportunities filled with uncountable possibilities. It’s up to you to make the most of them.

Cheers.

2 thoughts on “2020 Review, Lessons Learnt, What I’m looking out for in 2021

  1. Thanks for sharing.

    What’s your strategy and thinking around the commodities? They’ve been down for a really long time. Are you taking fundamental positions and holding for long-term turn in the commodities cycle?

    1. Hello, I think there are 3 points in general. 1-supply and demand lag where supply due to shutting down of mines etc will not be able to catch up with demand. 2-ESG concerns will increase production cost (not just mining, but think also concrete, steel etc) which will drive prices up. 3-US dollar weakens usually mean hard assets like commodities will rise.
      Yeah this will be a long term play as this is hard to time. I was 1.5years too early for the uranium, gold and thermal coal plays.

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